Trump victory! Political scientist claims US President Will defy odds again in US election

DONALD TRUMP will defeat Democrat Joe Biden to win the upcoming U.s.a. Presidential ballot, a political scientist has predicted. While Joe Biden has been leading President Trump in about national opinion polls heading into the November 3 ballot, American political scientist Helmut Norpoth claimed the Republican is heading for victory.

Mr Norpoth said that Mr Trump has a 91 percentage risk of winning compared to his rival Mr Biden, who has just ix percentage of taking the Usa Presidential crown. The political scientist's predictions, in a written report released in March, is based on the so-called primary model, which analyses the previous vi elections that have taken identify in the US. Mr Norpoth has predicted the results of five US elections correctly with the simply mistake being Al Gore's defeat to George W Bush in 2000.

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He said his predictions are based on the starting time political party primaries and "the fashion in which the candidates develop in those first elections".

The political scientist said this "is a very skilful indicator of what will happen in November".

Writing on the Stony Brook University, where he works as a professor of Political Science, he said: "On the Autonomous side, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders carve up the Democratic primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Trump comfortably won the Republican primaries in New Hampshire.

"When I saw that in New Hampshire Trump got 85 percent of the vote and that the closest opponent was Nib Weld with 10 percent, I was pretty certain what the model was going to predict.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump will win the election according to a political scientist (Epitome: Getty)

"If Trump had won only 55 percentage and 1 of the opponents had taken twoscore percent, it is possible that he would not have predicted that Donald Trump would have a take a chance to win.

"People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire. It was terrible. He obtained 8.four percent of the votes, which is inconceivable for a candidate with aspirations to be president."

Many believe Mr Trump will not be able to win again, but he secured a bombshell victory in 2016 despite it seeming unlikely at the time.

During the concluding elections, Mr Norpoth gave Mr Trump an 87 percent probability of success.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump on the campaign trail (Epitome: Getty)

Mr Trump has consistently trailed Mr Biden in national polls for months, partly because of widespread disapproval of his handling of the coronavirus.

Polls in the about competitive states, however, accept shown a much closer race.

The pandemic, also as an extraordinary level of enthusiasm, has prompted Americans to vote early in unprecedented numbers.

Already, more than eighty million votes accept been cast either past post or in person, well over one-half the total number of votes in the entire 2016 election, according to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida.

The deluge of mail-in ballots makes it likely that the winner of several states, including major battlegrounds such every bit Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, volition not exist clear on Tuesday night, as election officials wait the vote-tallying to take days.

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Who volition win on Tuesday? (Image: Daily Express)

The deluge of mail-in ballots makes information technology likely that the winner of several states, including major battlegrounds such equally Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, will not be clear on Tuesday dark, equally ballot officials expect the vote-tallying to take days.

Early on voting data shows that far more than Democrats accept voted by mail service, while Republicans are expected to turn out in greater numbers on Tuesday.

The final days of the campaign accept continued to be dominated by the pandemic, which has killed some 229,000 people in the US and hammered the economy.

Afterwards overcoming his own COVID-nineteen infection, Mr Trump has maintained a frenetic stride, holding up to three rallies a twenty-four hours with thousands of attendees despite concerns the events could spread the virus.

While Mr Biden has held smaller events, including "drive-in" rallies where supporters remain in their cars for safety.

Additional reporting by Maria Ortega.